H1N1 or swine flu - why the hype?

I am often asked by patients and just received a message from a wonderful high school friend about the Swine Flu or the H1N1 virus and why the media and CDC are making such a big deal about the virus and should we be scared. Below is her message to me and my response follows.

"Okay, so you're a very intelligent doctor...what do you say about the stupid Swine Flu? I just read the CDC site and that with all the media hype is freakin me out! Seriously, I need some answers from someone who knows-not a cardiologist, etc, is it something we should really be scared about?"

Well, thanks for the kind words. I haven't read all of the most recent hype but understand that apparently an advisory board to the President discussed a planning proposal (and not a prediction) that included a large number of infected and/or deaths this fall relating to the H1N1 flu virus. There is a valid (although frustrating) reason that the media and the CDC are elevating the H1N1 flu situation. It is primarily from a public health point of view to raise and maintain awareness and thus vigilance regarding containment or reduction of the potential spread of the virus this fall during the traditional flu season. Understanding the history of influenza will help you realize why the media and CDC are creating the hype.

The history of the flu (or influenza) involves some serious pandemics with terrible numbers of deaths (usually around 1 million worldwide each time with the exception of the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed somewhere between 20 and 100 million). Each year the flu virus undergoes mutagenic drift and thus we may get sick but our bodies' antibodies recognize and destroy the virus after a few days of feeling sick. Every 30 years throughout history over at least the past 120 years or so we have experienced a mutagenic shift that creates a virus strain that our bodies' current antibodies cannot recognize. These can be the deadly ones as those who are susceptible die before they can create antibodies to fight off the infection. We are about 20 years overdue for a serious pandemic and thus the media does not want to miss something this potentially dangerous. Keyword is "potentially" dangerous. We already made it through the initial phase of spread of the H1N1 virus and it failed to be as dangerous as expected. Here is another fact for perspective: The "regular" flu kills 36,000 Americans each year and the H1N1 flu has killed 522 in the US so far.

So now the media wants everyone to be aggressive this fall with hand washing, coughing into covered hands or tissue, and staying home when sick with flu-like symptoms. Do not worry (remember Matthew 6:25-27) but just be wise as above.

jxibalba